What a person allows to count as evidence decides what they will attempt, long before the facts do.
Facts arrive on their own; references are selected, and only the selected ones hold up a feeling of certainty. A man looked straight at the strongest evidence against the promise and refused to file it as a reference, so it never became a fence he mistook for the horizon. Certainty set his state, the state set what he expected, and what he expected kept him living as a father years before there was a child.
What he kept instead was the word spoken to him, and a promise held that way does the same work evidence does. The person who files every discouraging fact ends up with a certainty nobody ever tested, and it quietly rules out attempts that were never closed to them.